Saturday, November 26, 2011

Education and Employment: How large is the gap in India

How much have we heard about the number of engineers, masters degree holders, PhDs, doctors etc India produces "every year". Here are some statistics:
·         In 2008, it is estimated that 3.5 lakh engineering degrees, 23,000 engineering Masters degrees and about 1,000 PhDs were awarded in India. The number of engineering graduates in India produced annually: 350,000. Compared to India, the United States produces 70,000 engineering graduates. Europe produces 100,000 engineering graduates.
 India also produces 60,000 MBAs every year.
·  The number of doctors registered by different state councils stood at 6,68,131 during the year 2006 giving a doctor to population ratio of 60:100000. Total number of doctors in India about 4.5 lakhs.

However this figure for engineers at least included “diploma engineers” who were not true engineers at all. India actually had only 102,000 real engineering graduates in 2002. This went up to 222,000 in 2006 and may be double that in 2011. India does have some excellent engineering schools, but McKinsey estimates that only 25% of Indian engineering graduates are good enough to work for multinationals (and only 15% of finance graduates and 10% of those with degrees of any kind.)

These figures are reflected in an article in The Economic Times: To read the full article go here.

      The increase in our education levels has been accompanied by a decline in quality, creating a growing pool of unemployable collegegraduates. 

The India Human Development Survey, conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Researchand University of Maryland, provides a striking example. In this survey of over 41,000 households conducted in 2004-05, each cohort is more likely to finish college than the previous cohort. Among males born in 1930s, only 4% completed college. Among those born in 1970s, 13% completed college. 

However, even on rudimentary skills such as ability to converse fluently in English, these new college graduates appear to fare more poorly than the college graduates of their fathers' generation. 

Of male graduates born in the 1930s, 53% are fluent in English compared to only 31% among those who were born in the 1970s. This does not mean that the number of English speakers in India has gone down since rising education levels make up for some of the quality decline. 

However, had these new graduates retained the same skill levels as those born in 1940s, India would have had 50% more English-speaking college graduates. Since English fluency brings enormous economic returns, and increases wages by at least 12%, this increase in English speakers would have had enormous economic dividend. 

We have few other markers of skills to compare across generations. If we were to give mathematics tests to adults, it is most likely that we would also see a decline in simple skills such as dividing fractions or solving basic algebraic equations. 

What accounts for this decline? Part of the answer lies in the speed with which enrolments have risen. Rising demand for higher education can no longer be met with traditional colleges and a host of creative solutions ranging from private colleges to distance education are being embraced with little attention to quality. While students must meet some minimum standards to pass the examination, rote learning to prepare for the examination has become the norm. 

But the other part of this answer is even more intractable. As enrolments rise and education is no longer the preserve of the elite, greater demands are placed on educators to teach students who are first-generation learners.